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This study covers the world outlook for once-refined palm oil that has been only purchased and deodorized across more than 200 countries. For each year reported, estimates are given for the latent demand, or potential industry earnings (P.I.E.), for the country in question (in millions of U.S. dollars), the percent share the country is of the region and of the globe. These comparative benchmarks allow the reader to quickly gauge a country vis-`-vis others. Using econometric models which project fundamental economic dynamics within each country and across countries, latent demand estimates are created. This report does not discuss the specific players in the market serving the latent demand, nor specific details at the product level. The study also does not consider short-term cyclicalities that might affect realized sales. The study, therefore, is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved.
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the world market face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying crude palm kernel or babassu oil? What is the dollar value of these imports? How much do the imports of crude palm kernel or babassu oil vary from one country to another? Do exporters serving the world market have similar market shares across the importing countries? Which countries supply the most exports of crude palm kernel or babassu oil? Which countries are buying their exports? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing the regional markets for imported and exported crude palm kernel or babassu oil. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for each region, is based on a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the shares that countries are likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information for strategic planning purposes.
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